中国粮食进口安全综合评价研究——基于超效率DEA模型

在对粮食及粮食进口安全内涵加以界定的基础上,从粮食数量、粮食质量、粮食价格、粮食贸易、国家经济、生态环境6个方面分析中国粮食进口安全的影响因素,基于超效率DEA模型构建中国粮食进口安全评价模型。对1992—2015年中国粮食进口安全状况进行评价,结果表明,1992—2015年中国粮食进口处于安全状态,粮食进口对我国粮食价格安全和生态安全的影响程度较小,对数量安全、质量安全、贸易安全和经济安全的影响程度较大。     

基于科技文献社会网络分析的"一带一路"科技情报安全研究

为明确中国在"一带一路"沿线国家所形成的科技网络中处于怎样的位置,面临怎样的科技情报风险,需要采取哪些措施维护中国科技情报安全,应用智库DIIS理论方法,对科学引文索引中2013年-2017年"一带一路"沿线国家论文合作数据进行社会网络分析,应用管理机制设计"七元组"理论开展科技情报安全机制设计。研究结果显示,中国科技情报的暴露程度较高,科技应用的不可控因素、知识产权保护的挑战、科技情报资源流失的风险同时存在,并与各种非传统安全问题相叠加。切实掌握核心技术,维护知识产权,加强政府、社会对科技交流的监管,防止科技情报被非法利用,是保障科技情报安全的主要途径。     

Transpiration efficiency of Amaranth (Amaranthus sp.) in response to drought stress

Drought is a major abiotic stress responsible for severe crop losses worldwide. Development of new crop varieties with increased drought tolerance is one way to increase crop productivity. The aim of this study was to characterise the diversity of nine accessions belonging to Amaranthus tricolor and A. cruentus, in response to drought stress using a dry-down protocol to characterise the transpiration efficiency (TE). Plants were subjected to either a gradual dry down or well-watered conditions. Results showed that TE was significantly higher (P < 0.01) in water-deficient (WD) plants compared to water-sufficient (WS) plants, 2.40 g kg^?1–7.13 g kg^?1 and 2.19 g kg^?1–4.84 g kg^?1, respectively. There was no significant difference in the fraction of transpirable soil water (FTSW) threshold decline between the amaranth genotypes. TE was highly correlated with yield under both WS (r = 0.89, P < 0.001) and WD conditions (r = 0.662, P < 0.001), and negatively correlated with root-to-shoot ratio under both WS (r = ?0.488, P < 0.05) and WD conditions (r = ?0.460, P < 0.05). Significant genotypic differences were seen for growth rate and stress susceptibility index (SSI). The result obtained in this investigation underline the need to identify genotypic variation in water use efficiency in amaranth.

Abbreviations: FTSW: Fraction of transpirable soil water; NTR: normalised transpiration rate; SSI: Stress susceptibility index; TE: transpiration efficiency; WHC: water holding capacity; WD: water-deficient; WS: water-sufficient.     

基于DPSIR和云模型的宿鸭湖水库水环境安全评估

为了推动水库水环境安全工作的开展,强化水源区水质保护,以宿鸭湖水库为例,应用DPSIR模型建立了水库水环境安全评估的指标体系,通过熵值法确定了各指标的权重,采用云模型对其2015年的水环境安全进行了评估,结果表明：该水库水环境处于较安全等级,但存在安全隐患；由于上游工业废水、居民生活污水、餐饮业的废弃物随着降雨径流汇入水库,再加上水产养殖、观光旅游等人类活动的影响,使其TN、TP的浓度和入库量增加,水库水质难以达标,需引起水库管理部门的重视。结论：云模型可减少评估过程中的不确定性,实现水库水环境安全概念与其定量数值间的合理转换,使其评估结果与实际相符。     

Agriculture Green Development: a model for China and the world

Realizing sustainable development has become a global priority. This holds, in particular, for agriculture. Recently, the United Nations launched the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), and the Nineteenth National People’s Congress has delivered a national strategy for sustainable development in China—realizing green development. The overall objective of Agriculture Green Development (AGD) is to coordinate “green” with “development” to realize the transformation of current agriculture with high resource consumption and high environmental costs into a green agriculture and countryside with high productivity, high resource use efficiency and low environmental impact. This is a formidable task, requiring joint efforts of government, farmers, industry, educators and researchers. The innovative concept for AGD will focus on reconstructing the whole crop-animal production and food production-consumption system, with the emphasis on high thresholds for environmental standards and food quality as well as enhanced human well-being. This paper addresses the significance, challenges, framework, pathways and potential solutions for realizing AGD in China, and highlights the potential changes that will lead to a more sustainable agriculture in the future. Proposals include interdisciplinary innovations, whole food chain improvement and regional solutions. The implementation of AGD in China will provide important implications for the countries in developmental transition, and contribute to global sustainable development.     

福建省粮食生产的耕地利用效应时空分析

根据福建省及其地级市2009—2016年的粮食生产数据,对其粮食生产和耕地利用情况进行时空分析,并采用LMDI模型分解各耕地利用因素对粮食产量的贡献,比较和分析不同耕地利用因素对粮食产量变化的效应,以探究不同区域粮食产量变化的主导因素。结果表明:福建省2009—2016年粮食产量约下降2.4%,其中,粮作比下降8.8%是导致福建省粮食减产的主要因素。2009—2016年,福建省各地级市中仅龙岩和三明2地实现粮食增产。厦门农业劳动力人均耕地面积降幅最大,龙岩和漳州粮食单产增幅明显,泉州农业劳动力数量下降明显,所有地级市的粮作比均有不同程度的下降。结构效应是导致福建省粮食减产的主要因素,影响省内各地级市粮食产量变化的因素则各有不同。     

潍坊市花生生产现状及存在主要问题

通过对近10年潍坊市花生播种面积、产量和分布情况,以及花生生产中遇到的黄曲霉毒素、重金属、农药等污染问题进行分析,确立潍坊市当前花生生产现状和生产中存在的安全问题,并提出解决问题的对策与途径。     

一种汽车车内一氧化碳监控系统

汽车车内由于CO导致的意外安全事故常常被忽略。汽车发动机和空调在运行过程中产生的CO进入车内,极易被忽视而诱发中毒的事故。利用单片机传感器技术设计一种汽车车内CO浓度监控系统,当车内CO浓度达到200 ppm时系统发出第一次报警,当车内CO浓度达到300 ppm,系统发出第二次报警提示,并开启天窗通风,保证车内人员安全。     

我国油菜籽及菜子油进口依赖性与进口安全研究

为判断我国油菜籽及菜子油进口来源的可靠性,降低进口风险,考察我国对主要来源国的进口依赖关系。在分析我国油菜籽和菜子油进口市场结构的基础上,综合考察我国油菜籽及菜子油从各主要来源国的进口占总进口值的份额(I1)、进口来源国对我国出口占该国总出口值的份额(I2),各主要出口国的油菜籽及菜子油出口值占世界的份额(P值)以及我国与各国总体贸易平衡状况(B指数),测算我国对主要进口来源市场的进口依赖系数(I3及I5),并评价进口安全性。结果表明我国油菜籽和菜子油进口主要依赖加拿大市场,但对加拿大的油菜籽进口依赖系数I3和I5分别从2005年的12.781 8和4.322 4下降到2012年的2.662 5和1.032 7,菜子油I3和I5分别从2005年的5.079 8和0.906 2下降到2012年的2.232 7和0.856 1。得出加拿大是我国油菜籽和菜子油进口的安全来源,进口油菜籽比菜子油更加经济合理的结论,并提出相关对策建议。